On The Ball
On The Ball

Episode · 1 year ago

NFL Week 5 Review & Week 6 Preview | American Football


In a blockbuster episode of the On The Ball podcast, I review Week 5 of the NFL and also preview Week 6. I name my winners and losers of the week, my players of the week and make some bold predictions for the upcoming round. 


It's a welcome back to the on the board PODCAST, another episode of the best potty going around, and today we are here again to chat about some more NFL action. This week it's a bit different. Not going to be doing an NFL fantasy episode. Going to wait to do that with the boys in the coming weeks. So I'm going to be doing a review and a preview all in one. I have originally filmed the pre the review on Tuesday afternoon and the file did not record, probably corrupted, so unfortunately I got to do it again. So I'll be doing that and I'll be combining it with our preview as well, so it should be a good episode. It's a nice warm Spring Day in Melbourne, so sorry if there's a bit of glare coming off my t shirt or something. Tried to lower the glare coming off my laptop, but yeah, I mean my son is kit my stripes and must my cricket hat and I'm love and life. So yeah, NFL week five. It was a good week. Some very hectic games but as usual, going to go through my winners and loses. I did a nice little sort of debrief of the round on shoes day, but unfortunately a lot of it has sort of gone over my in one ear and out the other at this point of the week. So I'll just be gone through my winners and losers and that might trigger some thought process. But my first winners obviously got to be the buffalo bills, massive primetime victory over the Kansas City chiefs. And you have to say right now, if we're looking at the Super Bowl, I've still probably got the chiefs as the favorite to be the AFC participant. But if we stop the season right now, buffalo or definitely the number one seed. And the issue is, even if I think the chiefs might be better at that time of the year, if they keep going with this this rate, both teams like the bills and the chiefs, they keep going at this level, the bills are going to be locking in that number one spot. They're going to get that week off and they're going to have three home playoff games, or to home playoff games. I can't count, but yes, to home playoff games leading into the super bowl, which would be a big, beneficial, big benefit for them and could be the difference between them winning all losing the AFC championship game. So that's huge for them. They look like they've really married up there their last two seasons for the best possible combination. Really like they've look got the defense from two thousand and nineteen. That was one of the best of the camp. They've got the offense from two thousand and twenty. That was one of the best in the COMP they've merged to those two together and they're playing unbelievable football right now. Apart from a week one loss to the steelers, it's been a pretty much flawless season since then. They forced for turnovers from the chiefs in this one, which is very, very rare. The chiefs have been pretty turnover prone so far this year compared to normal, but still, the defense was definitely applying a lot of pressure. They had eight point one yards per play in attack compared to the chiefs, who are only average five. So that's just a complete demolition, not even close, as the school board did end up suggesting. And for the rest of the season their strength of schedule is the second easiest league wide. So yeah, right now that number one seed is looking very, very good and a home playoff run that could definitely be on the cards for the Buffalo Bills, which would be huge for them and the franchise. I just think the way they've built that roster so impressive. There's like no like. Obviously Josh Allen's are very, very quarterback, but there's no one absolute start. It's not like green bay where there's Aaron Rodgers who you know if he plays bad, the team goes from exceptional too pretty awful pretty quickly. So I just love the way they've built the team. They've got twenty two, thirty, just really, really solid players, some exceptional players and, as I mentioned, like they're not relying on one player.

Like I'm not really that worried if they have one injury that are obviously like Josh Allen Getting injured, but touch would. But yeah, I don't think like one or two injuries are really going to change the way that team plays, where another team might really struggle to cover those injuries. have got really good depth. They've also got the running game going this year, which they have an in previous year's single Terry in past years hasn't really been able to get it going himself. So the combination this year of a Second Years Zach Moss combined with a single terry, but the better oline. Yeah, they're starting to run the ball really, really well. Alan's running well himself. So yeah, right now buffalo look good on pretty much all fronts and they look like a scary proposition for anyone to come up against, and you would have to say like it's good that they'refore, they're running any good defense, because when it gets cold in Buffalo, might even snow there, they're just going to be a scary opposition. My second biggest winner is probably a road one, but I've got the Philadelphia Eagles. They had a huge comeback win over the panthers. Held the Carolina offense, a team points which has been pretty good to start the season. One point they were. According to the ESPN game cast, they were at a ninety one point four percent chance of losing the game. It was in Carolina as well. Just adds to the impressive feet hurts didn't have a very good day at all. I think he had a QB rating of like thirty, but they still got the win, which is important. There it's important for a team to have multiple ways of winning this and their defense got the job done on this occasion. And I'm not I'm not the biggest fan of Philly, but if their defense can keep playing like this. They're attack has enough big play potential that they can produce him upsets like this one. They restricted Donald to an eighteen point four qb rating, which I think is one of the worst you can get, picked him off three times and they held the run game to three point six yards per play, which is pretty hard to do against the panthers. So yeah, big win for the Eagles. And Look, I'm not the highest on them, but the NFC wild cards situation right now is looking very, very messy. Obviously with Russell Wilson's injury, the niners aren't looking great. The NFC east teams, apart from the eagles, don't look greaty. The Washington and the giants are pretty bad. They've just beaten the panthers, who would be one of their rivals for this. The saints look decent and then the NSC North Teams, the bears and the Minnesota Vikings, don't look great either. So I think if there's a team like Philadelphia who can really step up, they could definitely make the playoffs and go on a bit of a run, but for the rest of the season, because I'm pretty sure their rest of schedules and not that bad compared to the people in that wild card race. It's to be a ridiculous achievement considering I predict them to win six games coming into the year, but I think they are playing quite well. Next up I have the Pittsburgh Steel is. They had three hundred ninety one total yards offense against the Denver broncos. Big Ben Average sixteen yards per completion, which is just a massive improvement on the last really eighteen months. Their offense has been struggling pretty much the whole time and they've been averaging very low completion rate. Are Numbers, because you know they've they just haven't really I don't know whether the Oline's been poor or whether they're just not trusted big bend, but yeah, they've just been a lot of short passes, a lot of checkdowns and it's good to see them airing it out a bit more. He only got sacked once, so clearly the oldline did have a lot better game and they average four point two yards per carry, which doesn't sound immense but considering they were averaging about three yards per carry the last couple weeks, it's a big improvement for that Oline and the whole team. Keeping the bronchos to nineteen points is pretty much what we expect from this defense really. We expect them to keep teams below twenty five points on a regular basis and really their ceiling just comes up down to whether their offense is good enough to put up more than that. So and they showed this game that they definitely can do that. So yeah, I'm not. I haven't been high on the steels... the first month of the season, but if their defense can play like this every week and their offense can, you know, play good two weeks out of three, all of a sudden they might just wrack up enough wins to feature in the playoffs. The broncos went to four hundred and twelve on third down, so that's really where the game was one and loss for either side. Brilliant third down the fence from the steels, but that is pretty poor conversion from teddy and his offense. Losers got to start with the Kansas City chiefs. I know they came up against a very good buffalo bills team, but they got annihilated at home, and there's no two ways you can say that. This is factual. I'm not too worried about them as I mentioned, I would still have them as my favorite to make the Super Bowl from the AFC, but they're just not playing good right now and in particular defense has begun beginning to be a bit of a worry because in previous years, at times throughout the season their defense has been an issue and they're sort of always got it just good enough for the playoffs, but at this stage it's going to be a have to take a drastic change and they do have time to fix it. There's, I think, twelve weeks left in the seat regular season, so that's a long time. But the issue for them now is they're likely not going to be getting that number one seed and they're not going to have that home avenge they have had in previous years, which you know, might be a bit of a shock to the system for them. They also have the second harder schedule remaining. So further emphasizing on that fact that they probably not going to get much home advantage in the playoffs, who knows, they could even be a wild card team, but the way the charges are playing right now, which would just be ridiculous and something I wanted to know, I don't not really a biggest believer in these sort of patterns and these trends. But something I did notice last year it's a bit of a curse of a super bowl loser. Four of the last five Super Bowl losers have gone on to miss the playoffs in one of the following two seasons. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the chiefs are going to miss playoffs, but just saying there does seemed to be a bit of a hangover from losing a super bowl because you know, you sort of gone so far yet come away with not much. I know, like when they have see still very impressive, but people always say there's a hangover for winning the super bowl and maybe it's actually a bigger hangover to lose it. Next up we have the raiders. Obviously don't want to get too much into it, but the biggest reason they're in the loser this week probably has to be John grudden getting sacked for his emails that were found to have discriminatory language towards a lot of people. It was obviously originally just the one email about the NFL players association president, and then and investigation found there was a whole bunch of them. There's rumors that there's a petition to get it released, which would be well, I don't know, like I guess it would probably actually don't know what, whether they would be good or not, like it would slam him for the rest of his career, but he might deserve it based on what was said. So yeah, it's a tough situation because we don't really know the details, but that is the letter of the law that he has been sacked and by the sounds of it, that does seem justified. However, what's even worse for the raiders to console consolidate that L is that they lost to the bears at home. It scored one touchdown only. I know it's a good bears defense, but this offense look like one of the best in the first three weeks. And they did this exact same thing last year. They played really well in the first three weeks, people got excited and then they just went back to being the same old raiders who are probably going to win eight or nine games and miss out on the playoffs. So yeah, this is definitely a concern for the raiders. They're going forward without a head coach, while they've got the assistant coach stepping up, but you know what I mean, and they're not playing great. They haven't played great the last two weeks. They averaged only four point three yards per play, which is just really, really poor. And Yeah, their home field... not looking as intimidating as it did at the start of the year. Three point two yards per carry on the ground, so they really weren't getting much going in the ground game. And they had a hundred eighty eight yards from twenty two completions, so around nine yards per completion. So they weren't getting much going on the ground. They were being very conservative in the passing game and they also gave away ten penalties. So Yeah, look, not much really went right for them. They did only keep the bears to twenty points, so I guess the defense is still playing well, but their offense right now is definitely a concerned because last week against the charges, I think they only scored fourteen points as well, which is not going to be good enough down the stretch if they were thinking about making a little wildcut appearance. Finally, the seahawks on my third loser. Obviously Russell Wilson out for around probably six weeks. There's been reports saying he is out for a month out for eight weeks, so we'll just go at half and say six weeks. They are two and three as well. They don't have an easy strength of schedule coming up and they sit last in their division right now. So that's really just enough to paint the picture for the seahawks. It's not looking good at all. I think right now the story line of Russell Wilson's looking ever more likely, as this look like the sort of stagnating this franchise. Really the last three is hasn't been much progression. If anything it's been regression. So yeah, really disappointing. Russell Wilson said he will only stay if they improve what's around him and the defense has gotten worse. The weapons haven't improved and if he like, unless they I don't know what could really sway. But if that was really his decisionmaking process, he wanted things to improve around and there's absolutely nothing to suggest that you should stay and I'll be honest, just from offense one of you, I'd like to see him leave. I'd like to see you go somewhere else see what happens. The defense is just really, really poor right now and they're a weird team because you look at them and like you compare them to the rams, you compared to them to the bucks, you compared them to the chiefs, and you sort of like question how they on the same salary cap because they just don't seem to have as many good players. And it sounds stupid, but, like, I was looking at their salary cap and there's not really seemingly anyone who's like on a massive contract that doesn't deserve it. But yeah, right now there's just seems to be a lot of people who are maybe earning a little bit more than they should be. And that's all that added up is not working well for these seahawks. And in the past the defense has been great, but their offense is sort of made up for it and that was not playing as well this year. The only thing in their favor right now is the fact that, as I mentioned, for Philadelphia, there's not many NFC wild card challenges. Like it's not looking like a very strong conference with very strong candidates. But yeah, for Geno Smiths to play for six weeks against some tough defenses as well, if they make the playoffs from here, will be pretty miraculous recovery for Pete carrol's men right. Awards of the week NFC player of the week is going to go to Davante Adams. Two hundred and six receiving guards from eleven catches. was part of a Pakisteam that had a big win in overtime over the bengals. Had One touchdown. You're which that touchdown was the last touchdown that the pack is scored at the end of the first half. So yeah, this guy's just unstoppable really at this point. He's probably getting double team pretty much every snap and he still managed to find two hundred and six receiving yards. I know he's getting passes from probably the best quarterback in the camp, but he is also himself probably the best receiver in the camp. So yeah, it's just a nasty duo to come up against for any defense and it's really hard to hold him to any thing less than ten catches a hundred and fifty yards. At this point. He's an absolute freak and he just can get open in any situation. He was obviously part of the whole field golfs fiasco. I think there was five miss field goals crossing...

...his three. Mick person missed to it's not Mick Pierson. Think about what you are saying, Americans. It is Mick Pherson. But anyway, Davante Adams and C player of the week. Also shout out to Tom Brady, who had a blinder against the dolphins. AC Player of the week. I've gone with Lamar Jackson. Thirty seven completions from forty three attempts, four hundred and forty two passing yards for a man who apparently is not good at passing the ball. For passing touchdown sixty two rushing yards led the ravens to one of the craziest comebacks of seen. Cults were up to ninety eight point four percent chance of winning. That's just outrageous. Like you think about that. That game gets played a hundred times and the algorithms are saying the Ravens Win One and a half times. So yeah, the fact that we got to see them do it is just ridiculous. They would down twenty two, two three of that point after Lamar's fum will in the third quarter. He went or for four on touchdown drives and yeah, it's just absolutely incredible come back from him and he looks like a bit of a new man this year. The first year he was pretty much just a running back. Last year they tried to convert him into more of a passer, with running back like threat, but the passing game just wasn't there, and this year they look like they've successfully converted him for the better and he looks like an outsolute loot weapon right now. Justin Herbert also shout out. He had a blinder. He himself led the charters to an amazing shootout victory over the Cleveland browns and his performance was very, very impressive. I have had to move inside. Not sure if the podcast will bit weird there in the last couple minutes my laptop overheated. It was too hot apparently, which we love to see. I was up to offensive rookie of the week, which I will give to Nudgie. Harris absolutely had a blinder for the steelers, as he has sort of all year. He's been playing pretty well in a poor offense, but this week the offense was better and he was a big reason behind that. He was a hundred and twenty two yards from twenty three cars, with one touchdown, twenty yards from two receptions as well in the air. to He was part of a big win. Didn't even finish the game actually with cramps, and they actually lowered his snap count, which was quite interesting, but I reckon that might a bit proved beneficial. There's not many guys realistically who can play, you know, eighty five plus, and the amount of running back injuries there are, I don't actually think it's worth it. So I think you actually get increased efficiency when you decrease of their snap counts. I think that was smart Footy from the steelers coaching panel. The honorable mentions Cadarius Tony. Obviously he's probably the main one, but the reason I didn't go with him was the fact that he got squalified at the end of the game. Also, he was part of a loss, so I like to give it to people who are part of a win. Jamal Chase, same thing, part of a loss. Cole pits. He had a really, really good breakout game as well. He was close and Davis Mills actually had a pretty good performance against it. Impressive New England Patriots Defense. Defensive Player of the week Darius Sleigh. For me, not really that close. Down James and Everson Griffin were both good. Dean James, however, he was part of a team that conceded about forty two points, but he had a good individual game and Everson Griffin was good as well. But Doris lay up against the panthers, had one tackle for a loss, two interceptions, played a hundred percent of defensive snaps, held Dj more to forty shoe yards, which has been a rare feat this year. Brun's been conceding about a hundred and twenty to him a game and they won the game eventually, and a lot of it was off the back of those two crucial interceptions. So yeah, dires like for me, back to his prime form where he was one of the best quarterbacks in the competition. He was out defensive player of the week for...

...this one. All right, preview time. I don't have curtises predictions in at the moment as he is back to work, which we love to see, but do have me and pilches, so we'll be running it through them. My shot bet of the week is being pilch. Actually on the same here I've Gone Kansas at Washington cancers by I've backed in Kansas by eight and that was my largest margin for the week. They're paying it all, thirty four and yeah, I just think it's really like. I think I've tipped Kansas before for a bounce back victory and they didn't. But Yeah, Washington playing pretty bad right now. They got pumped by the saints and they only just beat the Falcons of the week before. The chiefs have had a pretty tough run of fixtures and I think this is a bit of a breather for them, where they will just come out and put up forty points and show the world that they're still the one of the favorites for the Super Bowl. Update in the Short Bet standings, I'm still undefeated, just for from for, pilchers for from for as well, and Curtis is five from six, so pills gone cancers as well. Interested to see who curtis goes for upset of the week. I am currently three from four, so it was pilch and Curtis is to from seven, so he he's got some catching up to do. Once again, me and Pilcher gone the same. We've gone charges of Baltimore. I'll be honest. I did my tips this week. They're obviously because of the buy. There's fourteen games and I only actually tipped one upset, which is not going to that's not going to happen, but that's just the way I tipped and we are the only one. We both back towards charges of Baltimore. Now this matchups not great because Baltimore run heavy offense and the charges are really, really bad against the run. I think there might be the worst defense against the run of the competition, as we saw last week. And however, saying that, the Ravens running game hasn't been great right now. Lamars definitely leaning on the pass a lot more and the running back situation has sort of caught up to them a bit. latavious Murray, he's had a couple good games, but you know he's not the same as jk Dobbins and Gus Edwards and that sort of stuff. So yeah, and Tyson Williams is sort of been frozen out of the offense at the moment. So who knows? They should, if they're SMART, Baltimore, they'll go back to a lot more running plays and go to a run for scheme. But we'll see how they that goes and hopefully the chargers sort of like they have got to understand that that's their weakness by now and that they can address that and the chargers offense is absolutely humming right now and the Baltimore D it's playing decently, but it's not as freak as the once was. So I can see this being a big, big game. Like I could see the chargers winning maybe thirty six to thirty three or something. What have I actually tipped the charges to win by I've tipped in to win by two. So yeah, I think it's going to be closed. But for me this is the most likely upset, and pill just gone the same thing. On the spread side of things, we are I'm at forty three percent, six from fourteen, pilches killing us at sixty eight percent. He's seven and a half from eleven, and Curtis is struggling three from nine, at thirty three percent. By ones. This week. I'll be honest, I'm not really the biggest fan of any of the most my tipping the margins were quite similar to the lines offered by the bookmakers, but this week I've gone with the giants to cover at the rams. Look, this depends heavily on the injury front. For the giants Sake, one's pretty much guaranteed our gold A. I don't think we'll play, so it's a matter of whether like shepherd slate and come back and obviously if Daniel Jones plays. If Daniel Jones is ruled our, I've probably don't back this spread that much, but if Daniel Jones players, I do like it. The giants defense. Yet it's not playing great right now, but it's certainly not awful. The Rams, their offense has been sort of stuttering the last couple weeks. They've played some better teams, but yeah, I could see like nine and a half the pretty big...

...line. So that's really where the logic comes in. And the giants offense, if Daniel Jones plays, has been playing pretty well recently. So I think they've got enough points in them to keep it close. I have tipped the rams to win by where other rams on my list I've got them to win by six. So I've got them covering just and then my other one, I've got three here. I'VE GOT LOST VEGAS TO COVER AGAINST DENVER. Once again, not huge on this one, obviously with the whole coaching fiasco. It's also in Denver, which I'm not a fan of because it's a big home ground advantage for the Broncos. However, Denver have not look great the last two weeks and neither have the raiders. But you'd have to say the raiders have sort of play. Actually, I don't even think they've played better opportition, but anyway, I think the raiders maybe have a little bit of a bounce back game. I've got it very close, however. The line is three and a half. I have got Denver to win by one. So I've got Denver winning headtohead, but the raiders to cover, and I would not be surprised if the raiders won the game head to head. It's a divisional matchup as well, so they're always a little bit more unpredictable. But yeah, right now, den Bar, they have a massive injury toll and even though the raiders have a head coach out, I think they could cover that line. Then finally, I've got Tennessee to cover against Buffalo. Another one I'm not that confident in. I don't really like backing underdogs to cover as much as I like backing favorites to win by more than the handicap. I've got Tennessee to cover five and a half. I've got buffalo winning by three. I just think Tennessee's always a tough match up for teams because it's very unusual to face, you know, a Derrick Henry who has thirty five carries or something like that, face a team who will still run the ball if they're ten points down. So yeah, and hopefully they get some of their players back. Hopefully AJ Brownds a bit healthier this week, hopefully Julio comes back, and that could go a long way into this prediction coming true. It's also Tennessee home game. Tennessee haven't been playing unreal of late. So yeah, I think maybe Buffalo. They've had their big win. We've seen it a couple times already this year, like we've seen it with Baltimore, I think the week after they beat the chiefs there next week wasn't great. So maybe buffalo that we they maybe they saw that as they're sort of super bowl. They come in, underestimate the titans and it's a close fine. So I've got Tennessee to cover five and a half. PILCH. He has gone the giants to cover as well. He is gone the chiefs to win by more than six and a half against Washington. I don't mind that one at all. I've got the chief twin by eight, but definitely could see it being big guy. Just think Kansas. They're going to be thirsty to show that they're still one of the best teams in the competition and some some of the you know, some things just have them being go on their way. Like on against the bills, their receivers were dropping bulls that they would never drop and they had a running back in jury during it with Clyde ever's lay are going down. So yeah, maybe this is a bounce back game for them. They put up forty. Washington's offense is that good, so I could see them winning by more than six and a half. And in similar vein of things, he's gone Thursday night football, which I don't like predicting on because they're usually unusual games, but he is gone Tampa Bay to cover against the Philadelphia Eagles. He is got temper a win by more than seven. It is in Philadelphia and Philadelphia did have a decent winn against the eagles. My only against the panthers. The only thing I think pilch might be thinking here is tamper's offense is that good. They might score like thirty five plass and I don't think the eels Eagles have that in their locker, so I could see the thinking behind that one. However, I don't like backing Thursday out football and Philadelphia coming off a decent win and the defense is looking good right now, so it's an interesting one from him. One thing I will feelin out about peaches. I don't know if this is a cool incidence, but he's a giant's fan and he's back giants to cover and then he's back the Washington football team and the Philadelphia Eagles to get destroyed. So maybe is betting with the heart and not the head there.

But anyways, that's his predictions. So the we don't have curtases right now, but the man's working hard, so you can't blame him. I have not done the TV schedule for Australian viewers because I have been rushed to do this since the review didn't upload properly. But that's been it for another on the ball podcast. I know this week's a bit different. I've changed location. My laptops almost died from being too hot, so I'm not sure if the footage is a bit weird halfway through, but thanks for joining me. Let me know your predictions. Four weeks six in the comments. or in my instagram, DM's, and we will catch you next week. Cheers,.

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