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On The Ball
On The Ball

Episode · 7 months ago

NFL Week 5 Preview | American Football

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

This episode we preview the upcoming week 5 of NFL. Our predictions for sure bet of the week, upset of the week and best spreads of the week. Also, have a look at the TV Schedule in Australia and break down the biggest games.

Links: https://linktr.ee/ontheball

It's a welcome back to the honorable podcast, another episode of the best potty going around and we're back for another episode of NFL content. And today, as I mentioned in the review yet from yesterday, if you haven't watched that, feel free to go check that out. Listening to all watch to it on the various platforms. But today we are here for a week five preview with through the first month the footy, and this is where, you know, I feel like we are starting to get ad gisted who the good teams are. That makes the you know, that makes some matchups even more exciting because you can already start to, you know, see some playoff implications and divisional implications and stuff like that, where the first month, yes, it's exciting because you don't know what every ten's going to be like, but there are some games where you actually have no idea if it even means anything. But yeah, we're getting into the good part now and there's also I think there's a lot more divisional matchups this week. I could be wrong, but I feel like the first couple weeks are trying steer clear and then this period of the season and the last month they really start to come in hot and heavy, which is always good. So today what I'm going to do is I'm going to go through the three categories that we do in our predictions. So the short better the week. So again, that I think is the absolute guarantee. An upset of the week, someone who is not the favorite, with the bookmaker kids, who I think we'll win. And then also going to pick out my three favorite spreads. I've also got the boys, curt and Pilch, to send me there. So we're going to chat a little bit about there's. Will be focusing more on mine, since I'm the one who decided my own. So I understand my thought process, but will definitely comment on theirs and we'll give you an update. And then at the end will I'll just chat about some of the big games that are also going on. So sure, better the week. By the way, let me know your predictions for this round, either in my instagram or in the youtube...

...comments. Interested to hear what you have to say. Yeah, let me know, like what you think will be the short bet, an upset, a spread that you like, anything. Always down for hearing someone else's opinion or having a chat in the comments. Or my short bet is Tampa Bay to beat Miami. I think I've done temper is to short bet before, I think to beat the Falcons maybe, and I'm going back in the well and they're paying adult twenty. They I just think they're better team really on both sides of the ball. I think their offense, especially with Jacoby Bricette, not that tools like being killing it anyway when he's been playing, but I think right now the offense is just a massive discrepancy, like it's one of the best against one of the worst. And then the defenses they're a bit closer together, but I'll still probably take temper just over Miami. So yeah, for me, just based on that act, I think Miami would really have to play out of their skin to win this game. So I'm pretty confident the Tampa Bay will get the job done. Miami weren't that bad, I think two weeks ago against the raiders, but last week's performance against the colts was pretty putrid and even though temper weren't great against the Patriots, I think that's even more fuel to the fire looking for a bounce back game. And yes, I know Brian Flor has is the coach of the dolphins who used to work patriots and he's had some success against Tom Brady, but I just think this offense is completely different beast and I just don't really see it world where temper don't put on a bit of a show. So they're playing it old. Twenty are by the way, just to quick update in the Short Bet standings, I'm still a hundred percent, pilch is still a hundred percent and curtises at eighty percent. He's got one wrong last week, actually the times lost to the jets, which was his short better the week the first one we've got wrong all season. pilches predict prediction this week is the Vikings to beat the lions. I also like this one pretty like quite a lot I have. I did my tits every game before I did my...

...predictions because I don't like to get influenced by the odds and stuff. So I have Minnesota winning by ten. I was had tempered by ten, but my difference was that I just trust and nondivisional match up a bit more, because sometimes the divisional matchups can be a bit random. But yeah, it would be a big shock the vikings coming off a disappointing offensive performance last week on the scoring seven points against the Browns, so I think they'll definitely be looking to come back and make a statement against the Lions, whose defense is one of the worst in the competition. Just put up just yielded, I think, twenty six points to the bears. So yeah, I don't see a world where the Viking school less than thirty and I don't know if the lions have it in their locker, especially with the Vikings defense is playing pretty well right now. They're paying a dollar twenty three. So I think we've actually locked up the two biggest favorites there. So we're not really going for any rogue opinions. But that is the short bet of the week. And then Curtis has gone back for the Times. They dogged him last week, so he's sort of gone law of averages, I guess, and he's taking them at Jacksonville, paying it all forty four. Look, personally, I think there's better choices. I think I have the Times winning by like three or four in this game. Think there's better choices for your short bet, but I'm still pretty confident the times will win, especially coming off a loss. It would be pretty crazy, though, if the jags win this and because that would mean the times would be on top of that division at two and three. So yeah, that's just as I mentioned in the review, the AFC south is absolutely shit, but I think the times will be too good for the jags. Yes, the jags look better last week, but I don't think the bengals defense was anything special. Dj Chart goes out for the well for a long time, maybe the season. So yeah, all of a sudden it doesn't look that good and Jack Wall hasn't really so far at all. So that's Curtis is sure bet upset of the week me and pilled to also a hundred percent here. With three from three, curtises it. He's too from six, so he's abound thirty three percent. So he's got some catching up to do. This week. We've all gone different ones.

I've gone the browns. That the charges. It's away from home, which I'm always a little bit scared of because I don't know as in Australian sports home field advantage it does exist but it's not that important. Where in the NFL it's a huge thing and sometimes I do not really factor that in enough. But for me the charges home field advantage isn't really significant. We saw on on Monday night football last week that there was basically a great as home game. I think the Cleveland Browns will win this by six. That's what I've predicted. They are slight underdogs at a dollar. Ninety eight. I think would be a really, really good game. But for me the biggest mismatch is the Cleveland running offense against the charges running defense. Rush a running defense. Currently the browns are number one in terms of running offense and the charges are the fourth worst running defense. We saw two weeks ago the cowboys just absolutely cut them up on the ground. So yes, I think browns might just run straight through them and they might struggle with that. The charges defense is very good against the past, but to be honest, the browns don't really pass it that much anyway, so I don't think that will be too big of a factor. Also, the browns offense is coming off a average performance, only scoring fourteen points against the Viking. So I don't know, I think they may be coming put thirty up and the charges I just don't think they have enough against it brilliant defense in the browns to score that many points. So yeah, for me I think it'll be close and I think we'll be really, really entertaining game. I might not actually sure it's on Australian TV. It's actually not on Australian TV at the moment, however, foxtelling Ko have not announced their schedule. But yes, I think the brands will win this one. That so that's my upset. PILCH is upset is the seahawks to beat the rams on Thursday night football. These NFC west ones are always really, really tough and I think there's often good value in them. Last week I picked the seahawks to beat the forty nine.

Is My upset and I got that one. So I can definitely see the thinking here. My only fear with this one is, I know I sort of seemed to over emphasize this, but I do truly believe in bounce back games. Like I think you want to play a team coming off a winners opposed for a loss, whereas the rams just lost to the cardinals pretty embarrassingly in the seahawks just beat the niners. So that's my own the issue with it, and the seahawks aren't in great form. However, it is in Seattle, so that's definitely a big factor and Thursday night footy is always a little bit more unpredictable than some of the other games. You know, a short turnaround and stuff like that. So yeah, I don't hate the call at all. The NFC West Games are always interesting and I know they all have like dominance over each other. Like I know some teams in the NTEC West, like, for example, see attle, have been the forty nine is like seven of the last eight times or something. So maybe this seahawks have that over the ramps as well. Couldn't tell you, though. And then Curtis is upset of the week is the other NFC west divisional matchup, which is the forty nine is at Arizona. I will preface this and say Curtis is a forty nine is fan, so take that into account. It's going to be interesting. For me, this one matters a lot. On the quarterback situation, I know this sounds weird because Jimmy Gee's arguably better, but like, I just think if Jimmy g plays, I don't think they have enough firepower for the cardinals and the defense is playing so, so well right now. But for me, if Trey Lance plays and you give Shatahan a week to scheme up some plays for him. I think this could be really, really interesting because it, you know, a bit like Lamar Jackson in his first year, that kind of stuff where it's really hard to defend against an offense. You've never really seen something like that before. So yeah, I think Shanahan, with a mobile quarterback like tray Lance, I think he could definitely scheme up some things. Not Saying that Jimmy Geez CRAPP led, that Jimmy g shouldn't start, but I just think in my opinion they're...

...winning chances actually go up if lance plays so, especially against a team like the cardinals, who are currently, for an own, running pretty hot. So yeah, the forty nine is defense also has to lift. I think there's been a few google players so far this season, but they definitely need to get more production and know they've had some injuries, but yes, they currently like performing is a bottom ten defense, which is sort of what they built their super bowl run around. So they need to get back to their best. They're they're paying three dollars and four cents, so a big value pick for curtis there, but we'll see how he goes. He really needs to get that one as he is to from six on the spreads. Now the leaderboard pilches absolutely running away with it early. He's six from eight, going at seventy five percent. I am Bor and a half from eleven, going at forty one percent, and curtis is to from seven, going at twenty nine percent. So me and curtis sort of battling it out for second at the moment, with Piach well ahead. But it is still very early days and since we do through a week, you know you're one bad week away from completely changed. Flipping the script for me, my three I've gone with I've actually backed up curtis is called here. With my first one, I've gone the forty nine is at Arizona to cover five and a half. I actually have predicted for me. This one's a dead fifty fifty, I think. Sam Friend, I've had some really, really bad luck in the last couple weeks, obviously losing to brilliant rodgers last minute drive, and then they lost to the seahawks by a touchdown but had to play with a rookie quarterback who in his first game for half of it, so that's not ideal. So I think they are due for a some success and a win. But will that come against the cardinals and undefeated team? I don't know. And also, on the same point, the cardinals are sort of Jew for a loss. So yeah, I don't know. I just trust Shanahan, as I mentioned before, to scheme up something, especially if lance plays. The Arizona offense is pretty scary. But yes, I don't know. I just think five and a half the large margin in these NFC west Games that...

...are seemingly all, seemingly always close. Just some recent history. Sam Frand of actually won three of the last four in this matchup, including to two of those three being in Arizona. So they have had some success in this building and in this matchup. So could definitely see it continuing. So yeah, I've got the forty nine to cover that spread. Then next up I've got the colts to cover at the Ravens. I've Got Baltimore winning this game just but I think a seven point spread for a defense as good as the colts is very, very stiff. The cults of Fifth and take away differential currently. So to me that sort of leans itself to close games if your defense is giving your offense more time on the park, even if your offense isn't lethal like Indie Indianapolis is right now. If they're not turning the ball over and their defense is getting their offense on the park more than the opposition's offense, I think you know, lends itself to a close game. The indie defense is both top half in rushing and passing. The ravens past off ans also has not been very good to this point. So yeah, definitely reckon it can be close. I am scared of the Baltimore Home Advance Home Field advantage because it's pretty big for the Ravens. But yeah, watching the Ravens Broncos last time, I know the last week. I know the bronchos are a very good defense, but the Ravens didn't really impressed me that much. So the colts are coming off a good win against the dolphins. They're still one and three in a diet position wins. They need to win a lot of games for here on out to make the playoffs and I don't think they'll win this one, but I think they'll definitely make it close. Then my final one is the packers to win by more than three at Cincinnati. I don't know, I'm just not really completely buying into the Cincinnati form right now. They are three in one, but on Thursday night football last week...

...they beat the jags on a go ahead field goal, and I think the jags one of the worst teams in the competition. So yeah, I'm not fully buying into that one. They also lost to the bears only in week two. So yeah, I'm not fully convinced. By not really buying that they're a good team, I've still got them winning seven or eight games. So I think this is a game that the packers win and they win well, I've got the winning by eight, so easily covering that spread of three. I was looking into it and the packers defense is actually really good right now. It's the eighth best against the part US so and that's obviously Cincinnati's best strength. There's a solid chance Joe Mixon doesn't play either, so they're definitely not going to be leaning on the run at any point and that's going to suit the Green Bay defense both. I was looking at the stats actually in there a pretty similar lineup, like both teams top ten in passing offense, top ten and past defense and then just sold against the run and with the run. So yeah, I think it could be a close game, but for me, when it's going to when the teams are sort of similar and nothing stands out on paper, you sort of just take the better quarterback. So for me Rodgers is a lot better borrow right now and I just think, yeah, it's have more faith in the packers, a team who we know we can week out play really good football, whereas the bangles a bit more of an unknown quantity. So I think that one's a solid, solid chance. pilches three. He has the giants covering at the cowboys. I will also preface this saying he goes for the giant. So interesting. The lads sort of tipping with their heart this week. The giants did cover last week against the saints, so I think and pilch did predict that. So I think he maybe running in hot off that. I don't like. I'll be honest. I don't like this one that much. I know it's a divisional matchup, so I think will be closed. I've Got Dallas winning by eight, so only just over the spread. But yeah, I just think betting against Dallas in Dallas right now is pretty frightening and the giants defense isn't playing great but the giants offense is praying playing pretty well, so it's...

...going to be interesting to see how they go against that on fire Dallas offense defense. Sorry, well, in both sides of the ball. Really dalls a playing really well, so going to be interesting to see if they can cover that. I'll be honest, if they cover that against the cowboys, I've probably got to reassess the giants because they're pretty decent team. If they get that close to the cowboys, then he's got the Texans to cover against the Patriots. I also like this one. The line is eight and a half. I just don't think the Patriots have that many points in them to win a game by eight and a half, unless you keep them to, you know, less than a touchdown, which is possible against Davis Mills. But yeah, as we saw on Sunday night football against the bucks, I just don't think the Patriots offense is a high scoring one. I don't think they have over twenty five points in them. So I could easily see, you know, a one hundred and fourteen fifteen type game. Here I've got the Patriots winning by six. So I agree with pilch that the Texans will cover but it just wasn't in my top three. So I like that one from pill joss. He's also back to the packers to win by more than three against the bengals and then moving on to curtises to he's only done to this week, which is fair play to hear me. He's double dipped in the titans. He's got the titans to win by more than four and a half against the JAGS. I sort of already talked about that game, so I don't really need to go into it further, but yeah, fair enough. And then he's other the one is my upset. He's got the browns to cover one and a half at the charges, which is interesting because it's sort of is implying that he thinks the browns will win because realistically, the chances that they charge as win by one point it's pretty slim. So he's sort of with me there on the upset. Video obviously prefers he's forty niners over the browns upset, because he didn't go with that one. So yeah, those are our predictions. Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments and my instagram dams. I'm just going to quickly run over some of...

...the big games and give my tip. So Thursday night football we have the rams versus the seahawks. I have the rams winning by three. Think will be close. I feel like whenever Seattle Lire and a primetime game it's always a high scoring shootout that goes to the very end. But yeah, excited for this one. It should be really good game. Both offenses, until last week, in terms of the rams, were playing pretty well. Both have big play threats all over the field. So excited for it. Sunday, not football, we have arguably game of the year so far. Chief to be bills. Probably an AFC championship game preview. Maybe the browns have something to say about that, but probably the number two, top two seeds at the moment. In terms of my prediction here, I've got Kansas to win. I just think. Well, I think right now the two and two, so I don't think they go two and three. Is Sort of my logic. And the bills have been playing really, really hot football. But yeah, I don't know. I still think. I don't know. I love the bills and I really want them to take the next step, but I fully don't trust them in the big games just yet. Like I think they're very, very good at putting away bad teams like we have seen in the last couple weeks, but when it comes to big game matchups I don't have full faith in them just yet. But hopefully it's a really, really good game. HOPEF it's a high scoring shootout and I'm really interested to see the buffalo defense. It was not great last year the Buffalo Defense, but two thousand and nineteen was one of the seat, one of the competition's best, and it looks like it's back to that form, if it not even better, this year. So I'm excited to see how my homes tries to break that down. On Sunday night football, Monday night football we have the colts versus the Ravens. I've already talked about this one. That's going to be another interesting game to teams will the Ravens don't really need the win badly, but the colts do need to win badly, especially if the titans are going to be the jags. Other games that are being televised in Australia, Ko has the eagles versus the panthers at for and this is an interesting...

...game. Actually. I think Philadelphia are smoke here in this one. Thought their performance against Kansas wasn't a bad at all. I am taking the panthers at home by three, but yeah, I think that's definitely going to be one to watch. And then the other games haven't been announce SHARD ON KO or Foxtel and the other ones on channel seven. Four I am packers bangles. Talked about that one to death, and thirty am forty nine as cardinals. So look good big footy. Actually really, really excited about the chiefs bill. Sorry about that. Part of me looking forward to that one great Thursday night football. You can rarely say that. Usually in the NFL it's usually well, like last week it's the Jags as the bangles. But yeah, excited to see how the RAM seahawks goes. Also got a London game this week. So Sunday football starts early. It's about fourteen hours of action, because I know in Australia it starts at thirty so I don't know what time that is in the US. I think it must be like nine am or something. But yeah, it's pretty hectics. It's pretty hectic day if you're watching football for fourteen hours. I don't even think it's televised in Australia, so don't even have that option. But yes, they will be an interesting one. I don't I must say, I don't really get why they took the Falcons jets game to London. You think they would take a more interesting game to try and like? If they're trying to promote the game internationally, you think they would take a good game, not a not a jet Falcon's jets game, but anyway they might put up something interesting. So yeah, let me know your thoughts on this upcoming week. Let me know your thoughts on my predictions. Let me know your predictions. Are excited to hear from you. got a fantasy episode going out tomorrow, so stay tuned for that and yes, very excited for another week football. Enjoy it.

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