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On The Ball
On The Ball

Episode · 3 months ago

NFL Week 5 Preview | American Football

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

This episode we preview the upcoming week 5 of NFL. Our predictions for sure bet of the week, upset of the week and best spreads of the week. Also, have a look at the TV Schedule in Australia and break down the biggest games.

Links: https://linktr.ee/ontheball

It's a welcome back to the honorablepodcast, another episode of the best potty going around and we're back for anotherepisode of NFL content. And today, as I mentioned in the review yetfrom yesterday, if you haven't watched that, feel free to go check that out. Listening to all watch to it on the various platforms. But todaywe are here for a week five preview with through the first month the footy, and this is where, you know, I feel like we are starting toget ad gisted who the good teams are. That makes the you know, that makes some matchups even more exciting because you can already start to,you know, see some playoff implications and divisional implications and stuff like that,where the first month, yes, it's exciting because you don't know what everyten's going to be like, but there are some games where you actually haveno idea if it even means anything. But yeah, we're getting into thegood part now and there's also I think there's a lot more divisional matchups thisweek. I could be wrong, but I feel like the first couple weeksare trying steer clear and then this period of the season and the last monththey really start to come in hot and heavy, which is always good.So today what I'm going to do is I'm going to go through the threecategories that we do in our predictions. So the short better the week.So again, that I think is the absolute guarantee. An upset of theweek, someone who is not the favorite, with the bookmaker kids, who Ithink we'll win. And then also going to pick out my three favoritespreads. I've also got the boys, curt and Pilch, to send methere. So we're going to chat a little bit about there's. Will befocusing more on mine, since I'm the one who decided my own. SoI understand my thought process, but will definitely comment on theirs and we'll giveyou an update. And then at the end will I'll just chat about someof the big games that are also going on. So sure, better theweek. By the way, let me know your predictions for this round,either in my instagram or in the youtube...

...comments. Interested to hear what youhave to say. Yeah, let me know, like what you think willbe the short bet, an upset, a spread that you like, anything. Always down for hearing someone else's opinion or having a chat in the comments. Or my short bet is Tampa Bay to beat Miami. I think I'vedone temper is to short bet before, I think to beat the Falcons maybe, and I'm going back in the well and they're paying adult twenty. TheyI just think they're better team really on both sides of the ball. Ithink their offense, especially with Jacoby Bricette, not that tools like being killing itanyway when he's been playing, but I think right now the offense isjust a massive discrepancy, like it's one of the best against one of theworst. And then the defenses they're a bit closer together, but I'll stillprobably take temper just over Miami. So yeah, for me, just basedon that act, I think Miami would really have to play out of theirskin to win this game. So I'm pretty confident the Tampa Bay will getthe job done. Miami weren't that bad, I think two weeks ago against theraiders, but last week's performance against the colts was pretty putrid and eventhough temper weren't great against the Patriots, I think that's even more fuel tothe fire looking for a bounce back game. And yes, I know Brian Florhas is the coach of the dolphins who used to work patriots and he'shad some success against Tom Brady, but I just think this offense is completelydifferent beast and I just don't really see it world where temper don't put ona bit of a show. So they're playing it old. Twenty are bythe way, just to quick update in the Short Bet standings, I'm stilla hundred percent, pilch is still a hundred percent and curtises at eighty percent. He's got one wrong last week, actually the times lost to the jets, which was his short better the week the first one we've got wrong allseason. pilches predict prediction this week is the Vikings to beat the lions.I also like this one pretty like quite a lot I have. I didmy tits every game before I did my...

...predictions because I don't like to getinfluenced by the odds and stuff. So I have Minnesota winning by ten.I was had tempered by ten, but my difference was that I just trustand nondivisional match up a bit more, because sometimes the divisional matchups can bea bit random. But yeah, it would be a big shock the vikingscoming off a disappointing offensive performance last week on the scoring seven points against theBrowns, so I think they'll definitely be looking to come back and make astatement against the Lions, whose defense is one of the worst in the competition. Just put up just yielded, I think, twenty six points to thebears. So yeah, I don't see a world where the Viking school lessthan thirty and I don't know if the lions have it in their locker,especially with the Vikings defense is playing pretty well right now. They're paying adollar twenty three. So I think we've actually locked up the two biggest favoritesthere. So we're not really going for any rogue opinions. But that isthe short bet of the week. And then Curtis has gone back for theTimes. They dogged him last week, so he's sort of gone law ofaverages, I guess, and he's taking them at Jacksonville, paying it allforty four. Look, personally, I think there's better choices. I thinkI have the Times winning by like three or four in this game. Thinkthere's better choices for your short bet, but I'm still pretty confident the timeswill win, especially coming off a loss. It would be pretty crazy, though, if the jags win this and because that would mean the times wouldbe on top of that division at two and three. So yeah, that'sjust as I mentioned in the review, the AFC south is absolutely shit,but I think the times will be too good for the jags. Yes,the jags look better last week, but I don't think the bengals defense wasanything special. Dj Chart goes out for the well for a long time,maybe the season. So yeah, all of a sudden it doesn't look thatgood and Jack Wall hasn't really so far at all. So that's Curtis issure bet upset of the week me and pilled to also a hundred percent here. With three from three, curtises it. He's too from six, so he'sabound thirty three percent. So he's got some catching up to do.This week. We've all gone different ones.

I've gone the browns. That thecharges. It's away from home, which I'm always a little bit scaredof because I don't know as in Australian sports home field advantage it does existbut it's not that important. Where in the NFL it's a huge thing andsometimes I do not really factor that in enough. But for me the chargeshome field advantage isn't really significant. We saw on on Monday night football lastweek that there was basically a great as home game. I think the ClevelandBrowns will win this by six. That's what I've predicted. They are slightunderdogs at a dollar. Ninety eight. I think would be a really,really good game. But for me the biggest mismatch is the Cleveland running offenseagainst the charges running defense. Rush a running defense. Currently the browns arenumber one in terms of running offense and the charges are the fourth worst runningdefense. We saw two weeks ago the cowboys just absolutely cut them up onthe ground. So yes, I think browns might just run straight through themand they might struggle with that. The charges defense is very good against thepast, but to be honest, the browns don't really pass it that muchanyway, so I don't think that will be too big of a factor.Also, the browns offense is coming off a average performance, only scoring fourteenpoints against the Viking. So I don't know, I think they may becoming put thirty up and the charges I just don't think they have enough againstit brilliant defense in the browns to score that many points. So yeah,for me I think it'll be close and I think we'll be really, reallyentertaining game. I might not actually sure it's on Australian TV. It's actuallynot on Australian TV at the moment, however, foxtelling Ko have not announcedtheir schedule. But yes, I think the brands will win this one.That so that's my upset. PILCH is upset is the seahawks to beat therams on Thursday night football. These NFC west ones are always really, reallytough and I think there's often good value in them. Last week I pickedthe seahawks to beat the forty nine.

Is My upset and I got thatone. So I can definitely see the thinking here. My only fear withthis one is, I know I sort of seemed to over emphasize this,but I do truly believe in bounce back games. Like I think you wantto play a team coming off a winners opposed for a loss, whereas therams just lost to the cardinals pretty embarrassingly in the seahawks just beat the niners. So that's my own the issue with it, and the seahawks aren't ingreat form. However, it is in Seattle, so that's definitely a bigfactor and Thursday night footy is always a little bit more unpredictable than some ofthe other games. You know, a short turnaround and stuff like that.So yeah, I don't hate the call at all. The NFC West Gamesare always interesting and I know they all have like dominance over each other.Like I know some teams in the NTEC West, like, for example,see attle, have been the forty nine is like seven of the last eighttimes or something. So maybe this seahawks have that over the ramps as well. Couldn't tell you, though. And then Curtis is upset of the weekis the other NFC west divisional matchup, which is the forty nine is atArizona. I will preface this and say Curtis is a forty nine is fan, so take that into account. It's going to be interesting. For me, this one matters a lot. On the quarterback situation, I know thissounds weird because Jimmy Gee's arguably better, but like, I just think ifJimmy g plays, I don't think they have enough firepower for the cardinals andthe defense is playing so, so well right now. But for me,if Trey Lance plays and you give Shatahan a week to scheme up some playsfor him. I think this could be really, really interesting because it,you know, a bit like Lamar Jackson in his first year, that kindof stuff where it's really hard to defend against an offense. You've never reallyseen something like that before. So yeah, I think Shanahan, with a mobilequarterback like tray Lance, I think he could definitely scheme up some things. Not Saying that Jimmy Geez CRAPP led, that Jimmy g shouldn't start, butI just think in my opinion they're...

...winning chances actually go up if lanceplays so, especially against a team like the cardinals, who are currently,for an own, running pretty hot. So yeah, the forty nine isdefense also has to lift. I think there's been a few google players sofar this season, but they definitely need to get more production and know they'vehad some injuries, but yes, they currently like performing is a bottom tendefense, which is sort of what they built their super bowl run around.So they need to get back to their best. They're they're paying three dollarsand four cents, so a big value pick for curtis there, but we'llsee how he goes. He really needs to get that one as he isto from six on the spreads. Now the leaderboard pilches absolutely running away withit early. He's six from eight, going at seventy five percent. Iam Bor and a half from eleven, going at forty one percent, andcurtis is to from seven, going at twenty nine percent. So me andcurtis sort of battling it out for second at the moment, with Piach wellahead. But it is still very early days and since we do through aweek, you know you're one bad week away from completely changed. Flipping thescript for me, my three I've gone with I've actually backed up curtis iscalled here. With my first one, I've gone the forty nine is atArizona to cover five and a half. I actually have predicted for me.This one's a dead fifty fifty, I think. Sam Friend, I've hadsome really, really bad luck in the last couple weeks, obviously losing tobrilliant rodgers last minute drive, and then they lost to the seahawks by atouchdown but had to play with a rookie quarterback who in his first game forhalf of it, so that's not ideal. So I think they are due fora some success and a win. But will that come against the cardinalsand undefeated team? I don't know. And also, on the same point, the cardinals are sort of Jew for a loss. So yeah, Idon't know. I just trust Shanahan, as I mentioned before, to schemeup something, especially if lance plays. The Arizona offense is pretty scary.But yes, I don't know. I just think five and a half thelarge margin in these NFC west Games that...

...are seemingly all, seemingly always close. Just some recent history. Sam Frand of actually won three of the lastfour in this matchup, including to two of those three being in Arizona.So they have had some success in this building and in this matchup. Socould definitely see it continuing. So yeah, I've got the forty nine to coverthat spread. Then next up I've got the colts to cover at theRavens. I've Got Baltimore winning this game just but I think a seven pointspread for a defense as good as the colts is very, very stiff.The cults of Fifth and take away differential currently. So to me that sortof leans itself to close games if your defense is giving your offense more timeon the park, even if your offense isn't lethal like Indie Indianapolis is rightnow. If they're not turning the ball over and their defense is getting theiroffense on the park more than the opposition's offense, I think you know,lends itself to a close game. The indie defense is both top half inrushing and passing. The ravens past off ans also has not been very goodto this point. So yeah, definitely reckon it can be close. Iam scared of the Baltimore Home Advance Home Field advantage because it's pretty big forthe Ravens. But yeah, watching the Ravens Broncos last time, I knowthe last week. I know the bronchos are a very good defense, butthe Ravens didn't really impressed me that much. So the colts are coming off agood win against the dolphins. They're still one and three in a dietposition wins. They need to win a lot of games for here on outto make the playoffs and I don't think they'll win this one, but Ithink they'll definitely make it close. Then my final one is the packers towin by more than three at Cincinnati. I don't know, I'm just notreally completely buying into the Cincinnati form right now. They are three in one, but on Thursday night football last week...

...they beat the jags on a goahead field goal, and I think the jags one of the worst teams inthe competition. So yeah, I'm not fully buying into that one. Theyalso lost to the bears only in week two. So yeah, I'm notfully convinced. By not really buying that they're a good team, I've stillgot them winning seven or eight games. So I think this is a gamethat the packers win and they win well, I've got the winning by eight,so easily covering that spread of three. I was looking into it and thepackers defense is actually really good right now. It's the eighth best againstthe part US so and that's obviously Cincinnati's best strength. There's a solid chanceJoe Mixon doesn't play either, so they're definitely not going to be leaning onthe run at any point and that's going to suit the Green Bay defense both. I was looking at the stats actually in there a pretty similar lineup,like both teams top ten in passing offense, top ten and past defense and thenjust sold against the run and with the run. So yeah, Ithink it could be a close game, but for me, when it's goingto when the teams are sort of similar and nothing stands out on paper,you sort of just take the better quarterback. So for me Rodgers is a lotbetter borrow right now and I just think, yeah, it's have morefaith in the packers, a team who we know we can week out playreally good football, whereas the bangles a bit more of an unknown quantity.So I think that one's a solid, solid chance. pilches three. Hehas the giants covering at the cowboys. I will also preface this saying hegoes for the giant. So interesting. The lads sort of tipping with theirheart this week. The giants did cover last week against the saints, soI think and pilch did predict that. So I think he maybe running inhot off that. I don't like. I'll be honest. I don't likethis one that much. I know it's a divisional matchup, so I thinkwill be closed. I've Got Dallas winning by eight, so only just overthe spread. But yeah, I just think betting against Dallas in Dallas rightnow is pretty frightening and the giants defense isn't playing great but the giants offenseis praying playing pretty well, so it's...

...going to be interesting to see howthey go against that on fire Dallas offense defense. Sorry, well, inboth sides of the ball. Really dalls a playing really well, so goingto be interesting to see if they can cover that. I'll be honest,if they cover that against the cowboys, I've probably got to reassess the giantsbecause they're pretty decent team. If they get that close to the cowboys,then he's got the Texans to cover against the Patriots. I also like thisone. The line is eight and a half. I just don't think thePatriots have that many points in them to win a game by eight and ahalf, unless you keep them to, you know, less than a touchdown, which is possible against Davis Mills. But yeah, as we saw onSunday night football against the bucks, I just don't think the Patriots offense isa high scoring one. I don't think they have over twenty five points inthem. So I could easily see, you know, a one hundred andfourteen fifteen type game. Here I've got the Patriots winning by six. SoI agree with pilch that the Texans will cover but it just wasn't in mytop three. So I like that one from pill joss. He's also backto the packers to win by more than three against the bengals and then movingon to curtises to he's only done to this week, which is fair playto hear me. He's double dipped in the titans. He's got the titansto win by more than four and a half against the JAGS. I sortof already talked about that game, so I don't really need to go intoit further, but yeah, fair enough. And then he's other the one ismy upset. He's got the browns to cover one and a half atthe charges, which is interesting because it's sort of is implying that he thinksthe browns will win because realistically, the chances that they charge as win byone point it's pretty slim. So he's sort of with me there on theupset. Video obviously prefers he's forty niners over the browns upset, because hedidn't go with that one. So yeah, those are our predictions. Let meknow what your thoughts are in the comments and my instagram dams. I'mjust going to quickly run over some of...

...the big games and give my tip. So Thursday night football we have the rams versus the seahawks. I havethe rams winning by three. Think will be close. I feel like wheneverSeattle Lire and a primetime game it's always a high scoring shootout that goes tothe very end. But yeah, excited for this one. It should bereally good game. Both offenses, until last week, in terms of therams, were playing pretty well. Both have big play threats all over thefield. So excited for it. Sunday, not football, we have arguably gameof the year so far. Chief to be bills. Probably an AFCchampionship game preview. Maybe the browns have something to say about that, butprobably the number two, top two seeds at the moment. In terms ofmy prediction here, I've got Kansas to win. I just think. Well, I think right now the two and two, so I don't think theygo two and three. Is Sort of my logic. And the bills havebeen playing really, really hot football. But yeah, I don't know.I still think. I don't know. I love the bills and I reallywant them to take the next step, but I fully don't trust them inthe big games just yet. Like I think they're very, very good atputting away bad teams like we have seen in the last couple weeks, butwhen it comes to big game matchups I don't have full faith in them justyet. But hopefully it's a really, really good game. HOPEF it's ahigh scoring shootout and I'm really interested to see the buffalo defense. It wasnot great last year the Buffalo Defense, but two thousand and nineteen was oneof the seat, one of the competition's best, and it looks like it'sback to that form, if it not even better, this year. SoI'm excited to see how my homes tries to break that down. On Sundaynight football, Monday night football we have the colts versus the Ravens. I'vealready talked about this one. That's going to be another interesting game to teamswill the Ravens don't really need the win badly, but the colts do needto win badly, especially if the titans are going to be the jags.Other games that are being televised in Australia, Ko has the eagles versus the panthersat for and this is an interesting...

...game. Actually. I think Philadelphiaare smoke here in this one. Thought their performance against Kansas wasn't a badat all. I am taking the panthers at home by three, but yeah, I think that's definitely going to be one to watch. And then theother games haven't been announce SHARD ON KO or Foxtel and the other ones onchannel seven. Four I am packers bangles. Talked about that one to death,and thirty am forty nine as cardinals. So look good big footy. Actuallyreally, really excited about the chiefs bill. Sorry about that. Partof me looking forward to that one great Thursday night football. You can rarelysay that. Usually in the NFL it's usually well, like last week it'sthe Jags as the bangles. But yeah, excited to see how the RAM seahawksgoes. Also got a London game this week. So Sunday football startsearly. It's about fourteen hours of action, because I know in Australia it startsat thirty so I don't know what time that is in the US.I think it must be like nine am or something. But yeah, it'spretty hectics. It's pretty hectic day if you're watching football for fourteen hours.I don't even think it's televised in Australia, so don't even have that option.But yes, they will be an interesting one. I don't I mustsay, I don't really get why they took the Falcons jets game to London. You think they would take a more interesting game to try and like?If they're trying to promote the game internationally, you think they would take a goodgame, not a not a jet Falcon's jets game, but anyway theymight put up something interesting. So yeah, let me know your thoughts on thisupcoming week. Let me know your thoughts on my predictions. Let meknow your predictions. Are excited to hear from you. got a fantasy episodegoing out tomorrow, so stay tuned for that and yes, very excited foranother week football. Enjoy it.

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